What if gravity exists?

The American economy is doing great. One could say too great. People have started fearing that it has defied gravity for too long, and a recession is imminent. Is it though? Some analysts and big market players are adamant that this doesn’t have to be the case. After all the US economy is strong, the dollar is strong, it’s the world reserve currency and when push come to shove, the FED is ready to pull the trigger and start printing money like there’s no tomorrow. The reason I am talking about the US, is that its economy is the barometer to the rest of the world. USA caught a cold in 2008 and as a result, southern Europe nearly died of AIDS.

But this applies to all of the money making machines of the world. The central banks, the central bankers, that “centrality” of the subject in general. Today the ECB stated just that:

So they are not public. They hold a legal monopoly status. They are not owned by the government, although their privileges are protected by the government. Now I finally understand why John Mcclane is a hero.

Now, before going any further, I need to make something very clear. I am not saying that a recession or a fiat (paper money) death domino, or the apocalypse will come tomorrow. We have been reading about this apocalypse for decades now, from the so-called gold-bugs and nothing happened.

They are most likely a broken clock that will be right twice a day. Not because they are dumb, far from that. But because -like a market- the monetary system can and will stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.

People are happy with anything that makes money for them and gold, according to Warren Buffett at least, just sits there being pretty.

He is not wrong. As an investment, gold sucks. But gold is not an investment, it is money. Money of which the current system managed to inflate its supply into stratospheric heights. Through paper gold (gold that does not actually exist), this monetary system managed to bend hard money to its will, so that fiat can prevail. And before doing that it used it for as long as it needed it (until 1971, when the USD stopped being backed by gold). The central banks with their cartel… sorry their legal monopoly status had the power to confiscate it from regular people.

Yes. Gold possession became unconstitutional in the US in 1933.

But what about the volatility?

Yes, I get it, this might be survivorship bias. And it would be if Bitcoin’s fundamentals changed, or stopped becoming better. Or if a lot of people already owned it. But both of these assumptions are far from true.

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